Is it a good time to buy a condo in Toronto? Nobody selling real estate, us included, can tell you where prices go from here, and anyone who claims otherwise is guessing. What we can hand you instead is the same framework a buyer’s agent actually uses before answering that question: how much unsold condo inventory sits on the market right now, which direction prices have moved over the past year, and what today’s mortgage rates do to your specific budget. Those three figures, not a headline or a gut feeling, tell you whether the balance of power currently favours buyers or sellers. Whether that adds up to “good” for you depends on things the market data can’t see: how long you plan to stay, how stable your income is, and how much you’ve saved.
What “months of supply” tells you about today’s condo market
Months of supply is the single number that describes a market’s balance of power. Take every active listing in a segment, divide it by the pace of monthly sales, and the result is how many months it would take to sell off the current inventory if nothing new came onto the market. A low number means listings sell quickly and sellers hold the negotiating power. A high number means buyers have room to negotiate, because sellers are competing against a deep bench of alternatives.
Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s Market Watch for July 2026 puts months of supply for condo apartments across the TRREB area at 4.4, up from 4.0 in June, though still below the 4.9 months recorded a year earlier. Active listings sat at 8,352 against 1,564 completed sales that month, and new listings kept arriving faster than sales could absorb them: 4,190 new condo listings entered the market in July, more than 2.6 times the number of units that actually sold. The average condo took 40 days to sell, and sellers who did close a deal received 97 cents on the dollar against their original asking price.
Conventionally, real estate boards treat anything above four months of supply in a segment as favouring buyers, and Toronto’s condo apartment market has been sitting above that line for over a year. That’s not a prediction. It’s a description of where the market stands today, and it will change as new inventory and new sales get reported each month.
How Toronto condo prices have moved over the past year
Price is where averages can mislead you. TRREB’s average condo apartment price across the GTA came in at $636,323 in July 2026, and within the City of Toronto specifically, the average across 1,054 sales was $672,807. Averages move with what happened to sell that month, though: more small units close in one month and the average drops, more large ones close and it rises, regardless of what any individual unit is actually worth.
The MLS Home Price Index tries to correct for that by tracking a consistent basket of home types rather than whatever happened to trade. On that measure, the Apartment benchmark for the TRREB area fell 7.35% year over year to $535,200 in July 2026. That’s a meaningfully steeper decline than the average price alone suggests, and it’s the number worth weighing more heavily if you’re trying to understand the real direction of the condo segment rather than the mix of what sold last month.
Both measures point the same direction. Whether a 7% year-over-year decline reads as an opportunity or a warning depends entirely on what you do next, which is where the rest of this framework comes in.
What today’s mortgage rate means for your specific budget
The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% at its July 15, 2026 announcement, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The next scheduled rate announcement is September 2, 2026. That overnight rate doesn’t set your mortgage rate directly, but it anchors the prime rate that variable mortgages track and shapes where lenders set fixed rates too.
What matters for your decision isn’t the headline rate itself, it’s what that rate does to the specific number you’d carry every month. The same condo at the same price produces a very different monthly payment, and a very different amount of purchasing power, depending on your down payment, your amortization, and whether you lock a fixed or variable rate. A buyer putting 20% down on a five-year fixed carries a different risk profile than one putting the legislated minimum down on a variable rate, even if they’re looking at the identical unit.
This is a place where a broker who runs your actual numbers, not a rate you saw in a headline, tells you more than any market-wide figure can. The market conditions above set the backdrop. Your own numbers decide whether this is the right backdrop for you.
The personal factors that matter more than market timing
Your own circumstances determine whether now is a good time far more reliably than any market indicator does.
How long you plan to hold the unit matters most. A condo you’ll own for two years is exposed to whatever the market does in that window, and a 7% swing either way changes the outcome meaningfully. A condo you’ll own for ten years absorbs a short-term dip the same way it would absorb a short-term spike: it becomes a rounding error against a decade of ownership. Buyers with a longer horizon can afford to worry less about this month’s benchmark than buyers who might need to sell in eighteen months.
Job and income stability matter just as much, and get discussed far less. A buyer with secure, predictable income can commit to a mortgage payment with real confidence about carrying it through a downturn. A buyer in a volatile industry or early in a new role takes on real risk regardless of what the condo market does, because a mortgage payment doesn’t pause when income does.
Down payment size changes both your monthly payment and your exposure to price movement. A larger down payment means a smaller mortgage, lower monthly carrying costs, and less sensitivity if the unit’s value moves against you before you’re ready to sell. It also usually means avoiding mortgage default insurance premiums, a real dollar figure worth checking against your specific purchase price rather than assuming.
None of these three shows up in a TRREB report. All three matter more to your outcome than whether this month’s benchmark reads as a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.
Why nobody can honestly call a bottom or a top
Every housing market forecast, including the ones published by real estate boards themselves, gets revised as new data comes in. TRREB’s own outlook work has described 2026 in terms of stability and gradual adjustment rather than a confident call in either direction, because the people closest to the data know how often confident calls turn out wrong. Interest rate decisions, government policy, new construction completions, and buyer sentiment all move independently of each other, and any one of them can shift the picture in a way nobody predicted three months earlier.
A market bottom is only visible in hindsight, once prices have already turned and started climbing again. By the time anyone can point to a chart and say that was the bottom, the moment to act on that information is already gone. The same is true in reverse for a top. Waiting for certainty means waiting for a signal that, by definition, arrives too late to use.
We’re not going to tell you this is the bottom of the Toronto condo market, and anyone who tells you that with confidence is selling you something other than accurate information. What we can tell you, honestly, is what the data says today, which is what the rest of this guide has laid out.
What to do instead of waiting for the “right” moment
Trade the search for a perfect moment for a decision built on your own numbers. Take the market data above, months of supply, the price trend, and today’s rate environment, and run it against your own timeline, income stability, and down payment. If those line up, the current conditions in Toronto’s condo market give buyers more room to negotiate than they’ve had in years: more inventory to choose from, longer average time on market, and sellers accepting offers below asking more often than not.
If you’re not there yet, that’s a real and useful answer too, not a reason to disengage. A buyer who spends the next six months getting their down payment, their pre-approval, and their target neighbourhoods sorted out is in a far stronger position than one who waits passively for a signal that isn’t coming. Our team talks to buyers at every stage of that process, not only the ones ready to write an offer this week, and an early conversation costs you nothing but ten minutes.
For the mechanics behind everything in this guide, from how offers work to how the wider market moves, our complete Toronto real estate guide walks through the full picture, and our guide to how the Toronto real estate market works goes deeper on the forces behind these numbers. If bidding wars are part of what’s holding you back, our guide to how bidding wars work in Toronto explains when they happen and when they don’t.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as a healthy months-of-supply number for Toronto condos?
Real estate boards generally treat two to three months of supply as balanced, under two months as favouring sellers, and four or more months as favouring buyers, though the exact lines shift by segment and by board. Toronto’s condo apartment segment recorded 4.4 months of supply in TRREB’s July 2026 Market Watch, up from 4.0 in June, which sits above the buyer-favouring threshold most boards use. That doesn’t mean every condo in the city sells slowly or below asking. A well-priced unit in a strong building can still attract multiple offers even in a market with elevated overall supply. The city-wide figure tells you the general negotiating climate, not the outcome for any specific listing.
Will Toronto condo prices keep falling?
We don’t know, and anyone who tells you they do is guessing. The MLS Home Price Index for condo apartments fell 7.35% year over year to $535,200 as of TRREB’s July 2026 report, continuing a decline that has been running for more than a year. Whether that trend continues, flattens, or reverses depends on factors that change month to month: mortgage rates, new condo completions working through the pipeline, immigration levels, and how many current owners decide to sell versus rent out their units. What we can tell you is that a market this size rarely moves in a straight line for long, and the more useful question for a buyer isn’t where prices are headed but whether the price and terms available today work for your specific budget and timeline.
How much does a 2.25% Bank of Canada rate actually change my mortgage payment?
The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, held at 2.25% at its July 15, 2026 announcement, doesn’t set your mortgage rate directly. It sets the cost of borrowing between banks, which flows through to the prime rate that variable mortgages are priced against, and it shapes the bond market that fixed mortgage rates track. The actual effect on your payment depends on your specific rate, your down payment, and your amortization period, all of which vary from one buyer to the next. Two buyers looking at the same condo can end up with meaningfully different monthly payments once their individual mortgage terms come into play. A mortgage broker running your actual numbers against today’s rates tells you far more than the headline Bank of Canada figure on its own.
I’m not ready to buy yet. Is it still worth talking to a real estate team now?
Yes, and earlier is better than later. Buyers who wait until they’re fully ready before having any conversation often lose months figuring out basics on their own that a quick conversation would have answered: what price range their income actually supports, what a realistic down payment timeline looks like, and which neighbourhoods fit their budget once fees and taxes are factored in. None of that requires you to be ready to make an offer. Our team talks with buyers at every stage of that process, from someone a year out from buying to someone ready to view units this weekend, and there’s no cost or obligation to starting that conversation early.
Is Toronto’s condo market currently a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?
By the conventional months-of-supply measure, it currently favours buyers. TRREB’s July 2026 data shows 4.4 months of condo apartment supply across the TRREB area, above the two-to-three-month range boards typically treat as balanced, alongside an average of 40 days on market and sale prices landing at 97% of asking on average. That combination of more inventory, more time on market, and sellers accepting slightly below their asking price describes a market where buyers have room to negotiate. It’s worth remembering this is a city-wide average across a very large and varied condo stock, so conditions in any specific building or neighbourhood can differ from the headline number.
None of this tells you whether to buy a condo in Toronto this month. It tells you what’s actually true about the market right now, which is the only honest starting point for that decision. Match it against your own timeline, your own income, and your own down payment, and the answer becomes a lot clearer than any headline can make it. Browse current Toronto condo listings, or explore the rest of our guides for more on how the market actually works.